Maui’s real estate market remains relatively unchanged month over month, as buyers and sellers remain at a standstill. Compared to October 2021, total sales have decreased 30% for both single-family homes as well as condos. Yet, over the same time frame, median sales prices have still increased, to $1M and $800K respectively.
With the number of new listings remaining flat and sales activity down, properties are now taking longer to sell. Having said all that, even with properties staying on market longer, Maui still only has 2.1 months of remaining inventory — which is still under what we consider a “balanced market.”
So, Are We In a Buyer’s Market Yet?
This is the question that most my clients are asking. After an unprecedented run up in 2020 and 2021, total sales are back around the pre-pandemic levels we saw in 2019. The CEO of Coldwell Banker, Ryan Gorman, has this to say about the current state of the market, countrywide:
“Right now the market appears to be in transition. The majority of markets we analyzed through August 2022 were still seller’s markets, but we can see that things started to shift in June. Inventory levels notched up for the first time in two years. Buyers are seeing less competition for homes. There are fewer properties with multiple offers and selling for over asking price. Sales have also begun to slow compared to last year. But inventory is still low, and it is not keeping up with demand. Prices are still rising too, albeit at a slower rate than 2021. That’s why we called our first trend: ‘an unconventional buyer’s market.’ There’s a mix of dynamics happening, making it difficult to say definitely, ‘Yes, we’re in a buyer’s market. Or no, we’re still in a seller’s market.’”
A Deeper Look at Maui’s Single-Family Home Transactions
Back focusing our sights squarely on the Valley Isle, demand remains strong for communities comprised heavily of owner-occupied properties. The residential areas of Wailuku, Kahului and Pukalani had an increase in sales activity year over year. On the other hand, the more leisure and vacation rentable areas of Kihei, Lahaina and Ka’anapali had declines of 50%. While competition has certainly cooled–we’re definitely not seeing many crazy bidding wars anymore–properties that present well and are priced appropriately continue to sell for above their asking price
A Deeper Look at Maui’s Condo Transactions
Even with higher interest rates the Maui condominium market remains relatively competitive amongst buyers. Median sales prices have held the $800K mark in part to an overall lack of inventory for sale. In fact, looking back 20 years, there had never been less than 100 new condo listings for sale in a month.
That is until recently. September 2022 saw just 69 new listings, and while October is up, there were still only 90 new listings. Compare this to the previous low in September 2012, with 108 condos listed for sale. Until more inventory hits the market, expect this trend to continue. Especially as we reach the peak winter sales period here on Maui.
A Deeper Look at Maui’s Luxury Market
Maui’s luxury sector, defined as single-family homes sales over $2.5M and condo sales over $1.5M, continues to hold steady for the last few months. However, you may be asking, what about compared to October 2021 or 2020? It’s always important to remember context, especially when interpreting data. And that two year period experienced unprecedented growth. I’ll again defer to CEO Ryan Gorman for his analysis:
“We just experienced a once-in-a-lifetime housing market during 2020 and 2021. Record sales. Record housing appreciation. Insatiable demand for bigger, better homes. Analyzing 2022 against 2021 is really not a fair comparison. We want to encourage…to look at the big picture and consider the facts. When you view the numbers from 2019, a stable year by all accounts, inventory in 2022 is actually significantly lower, and both sales and prices are higher.”
“Looking back even further, today’s luxury single-family home prices (across the country) have seen 60% appreciation since 2017. Luxury attached home prices increased nearly 41% from 2017. Real estate is often considered a hedge against inflation. And our Censuswide survey really highlights the strength of real estate’s position: nearly 80% of affluent respondents believe that real estate is a safe investment. Homeownership will always be a powerful asset class for the wealthy.“
Contact a Maui Real Estate Specialist
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