The market has shifted, here’s what the data is telling us

If you’ve been watching the Maui real estate market over the past two years, one thing has become increasingly clear.

The market has shifted.

The seller’s market that defined 2021 through early 2023 has given way to a much more balanced environment. Buyers have more negotiating power, inventory has increased, and pricing has become more competitive across nearly every segment of the market. This is particularly true for vacation condos on Maui.

That doesn’t mean the market is weak.

It means we’re operating under a new set of fundamentals.

Prices continue to normalize

The largest adjustment continues to be in the condominium market. Here’s a comparison of sales for the first half of 2026 compared to the previous year:

• Median condo sales price declined 12.1% to $650,000
  (2025 YTD median was $739,500)
  
• Average condo sales price declined 19.9% to $1,001,721
  (2025 YTD average was $1,251,148)

Single-family homes have also experienced modest price adjustments.

• Median home sales price declined 3.1% to $1,260,040
  (2025 YTD median was $1,300,000)
  
• Average home sales price declined 15.2% to $1,607,714
  (2025 YTD average was $1,894,823)

While these numbers may seem significant, it’s important to remember they follow one of the strongest periods of appreciation in Maui’s history.

Inventory remains elevated

Buyers simply have more choices today. Here are numbers from June 2026:

• 468 single-family homes were actively listed.
• 923 condominiums were available for sale.
• Condo inventory reached 14.2 months of supply.
• Single-family home inventory reached 8.1 months of supply.

Higher inventory creates competition among sellers, making pricing and presentation more important than ever.

Buyer activity is improving

While prices have softened, buyer demand is beginning to show encouraging signs. Here’s a comparison of changes from May to June to see how two months can show trend changes.

In May the number of pending condominium sales increased 31.6% year over year (75 pending 2026 versus 57 in 2025).

Overall pending sales (all property types combined) increased 13.2%, suggesting buyers are becoming more comfortable entering today’s market as affordability improves and uncertainty surrounding Maui’s vacation rental legislation begins to settle.

June continued that momentum. Here’s a look at the numbers…

Single-family home sales increased 16.4% year over year (78 in 2026 versus 67 in 2025).

Condominium sales jumped more than 51.7% compared to June of last year (88 in 2026 versus 58 in 2025).

While it’s still too early to call it a trend, buyer activity has clearly picked up.

What this means for sellers

Today’s buyers are educated.

They know the comparable sales.

They know how long homes have been sitting.

And they’re negotiating.

Pricing your home based on what your neighbor sold for two years ago is no longer a winning strategy.

Price is still your greatest marketing tool.

The homes generating the most activity are the ones priced correctly from day one.

The homes that miss the market often end up chasing price reductions and ultimately sell for less.

We’ve seen it over and over again.

What this means for buyers

This is the most balanced market Maui has seen in several years.

Buyers have more inventory to choose from.

More negotiating power.

More time to perform their due diligence.

And in many cases, the opportunity to purchase properties at prices below the peak of the market.

Updated list of Median priced condos

Looking ahead

No one knows exactly where the market goes from here.

Interest rates, inventory levels, tourism, and Maui’s evolving vacation rental landscape will all continue to influence the market.

What we do know is this…

Inventory appears to be stabilizing.

Buyer activity is improving.

And the Maui real estate market is beginning to look much healthier than the frenzy we experienced just a few years ago.

Markets change.

Strategies change.

The buyers and sellers who adapt to today’s market instead of yesterday’s market will be the ones who make the best decisions.

As always…

Facts over feelings.

Contact a Maui real estate specialist

Yes we will always be your trusted advisor in the real estate market. But it’s so much more than that! A REALTOR should be that professional who recognizes their role in supporting your wealth building and preservation. Helping to magnify wealth is one of the core values of The Sayles Team; a set of guiding principles for how we serve our clients at the highest level.

As experts in the field, we are constantly learning. This is all about providing guidance, making the wisest choices for the future. If someone you care about needs such guidance or recommendations, please share our contact information. We would be honored to help them! As ever, we are here to provide resources. Reach out today for your up to date, in-depth market analysis or an evaluation of your property’s value.

Aloha,

Anthony Sayles R(S)

808-280-6532

Anthony@DanoSayles.com