As we exit the busy winter months and enter into a slower period for Maui real estate on a whole, we thought it’d be appropriate to share some helpful charts that will allow us to analyze the condominium sector specifically. Your April 2025 Maui Condo Update will feature a few sections. Island-wide numbers for vacation condos vs. long-term use, breaking that down into hotel zoned condos vs. those on the Minatoya list, and finally specifics for Makena and Wailea condo complexes.
But before we dive in the specifics, below are a couple of graphs showing perhaps the most striking aspect of the current condo landscape. Total inventory–specifically measured by months of supply. If you aren’t familiar with this term, here’s a straightforward way of conceptualizing it. Months’ supply refers to the number of months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell given the current sales pace, without adding any more new listings. We will calculate this number by dividing the total number of condos for sale, over the number of condos sold in one month.
Months of Supply for Maui Condos Highest in Over 10 years
Look at that roller coaster over the last 5 years! While we know the market responds to many variables, there’s a few factors and specific events we can pinpoint that were the most likely causes in the extreme movements. First is mortgage rates. From January 2021 to January 2022, the average rate for a 30 year fixed hovered just below 3%. Borrowing money was historically “cheap” and we saw a buying frenzy that lowered supply to less than 1 month! If you bought or sold during that time frame, you surely remember just how unique a situation it was.
That drop in supply is especially stark in comparison to the increase we saw starting last year, particularly in May 2024. At that time, the market was relatively balanced with an average around 4.5 months’ supply. After the proposed legislation to phase out short term rentals from the Minatoya List, this average has risen every month to what we see now, at nearly a year’s worth of supply. What a drastic spike in relatively short amount of time. In face, we haven’t seen a rapid increase like this since the Great Recession! With this legislation seemingly the driver to the change, let’s further analyze the differences between vacation rentals and condos designated for long-term usage (referred to as “Regular Condos” in this following chart).
Vacation Condos vs. Long-Term “Regular” Rentals
Looking at the chart above and one key piece of information stands out. Pending units compared to total units available. This is a similar metric to months of supply, highlighting overall supply and demand. When we look at vacation rental (VR) condos, the 516 units currently listed is more than double the 239 for regular condos. However, pending units are a much closer number, with VR coming it at 43 and 39 for regular. In terms of percentage, this is 8.3% for VR and 16.3% for regular, nearly double the rate!
Hotel Zoned Condos vs. Minatoya List
When we break down VR condos into two further subsections, we discover another massive difference. I’m guessing this discrepancy hops off the page to you as well, dear reader, as most of us have a tendency to look for dollar signs. The average asking price for a hotel-zoned condo in April 2025 is over $1 million more than their Minatoya condo counterparts. The metric of price per square foot tells a similar story, as hotel-zoned properties sell for 38% more on average.
Wailea/Makena Condo Snapshot for April 2025
For a region specific perspective, let’s look at the resort area of Wailea/Makena. Again we see supply seemingly far exceeding demand (especially for these luxury price points). There are only four communities that have sales pending: Wailea Point, Kai Malu, Wailea Palms, and Grand Champions. Of the 91 active listings, only 5.5% are currently under contract. This is about as low of a number we can remember, and further emphasizes the gulf between buyer and seller expectations.
Bottom line, we are in a serious buyer’s market, and they hold most the cards as of this writing. If you’re an owner looking to sell your Maui condo fast, and not competitively listing your property from the start, chances are your condo will be sitting around for longer and seeing more than one price reduction. Looking at Wailea Beach Villas for sale as an example, there’s nothing under contract out of the 7 current listings, 4 have seen major price reductions, and median days on market is 140.
Final Thoughts
The current April 2025 data paints a clear picture: inventory is up, demand is down, and buyers are in control. Whether you’re looking at the island-wide condo market or zooming in on high-end areas like Wailea and Makena, the pattern holds.
If you’re a seller, it’s critical to price strategically from day one. Buyers have options—and they’re taking their time. If you’re a buyer, this is one of the most favorable markets we’ve seen in over a decade. The leverage is yours.
As always, we’re here to help you navigate this shifting landscape—whether you’re buying, selling, or just trying to understand where you fit in. Reach out anytime—we’re happy to talk strategy or run the numbers with you.
Contact a Maui Real Estate Specialist
Yes we will always be your trusted advisor in the real estate market. But it’s so much more than that! A REALTOR should be that professional who recognizes their role in supporting your wealth building and preservation. Helping to magnify wealth is one of the core values of The Sayles Team; a set of guiding principles for how we serve our clients at the highest level.
As experts in the field, we are constantly learning. This is all about providing guidance, making the wisest choices for the future. If someone you care about needs such guidance or recommendations, please share our contact information. We would be honored to help them! As ever, we are here to provide resources. Reach out today for your up to date, in-depth market analysis or an evaluation of your property’s value.
Aloha,
Anthony Sayles R(S)
808-280-6532