The Maui real estate market is finally showing signs of a “return to normal”, as median sales prices have essentially leveled off of June’s record highs. However, even as prices lowered into July, they remain 10% higher for condos and 5% higher for single family homes, compared to 12 months ago. While I don’t have an official crystal ball to predict the future, my best guess is that our market has plateaued. I strongly believe we are looking at a period of values holding relatively steady as not a steep decline in prices.
Interpreting the Data
Why you may ask? Well first and foremost, overall inventory on Maui still remains at record lows. This July, we saw 35% fewer single family homes listed compared to July of last year. Additionally, there were 9% fewer condos to hit the market compared to that same time frame as well. Condos are also being scooped up quickly, staying on market for 19% less days.
Furthermore, tourism demand has returned to near pre-pandemic levels, with visitor spending actually up significantly (about 15% more than Summer 2019). Finally, the labor market (both nationally and locally) continues to stay strong, with unemployment numbers continuing to fall across the board. I continue to see multiple strong offers for the top listings. To put it into a simple macroeconomic sense, supply continues to be at record lows, while demand remains high.
July 2022 Maui Single Family Home Sales by the Numbers
Let’s highlight a statistic that will be beneficial analyzing the current single family home market on island. While median prices may seem like the juiciest nugget of info, total number of listings might be just as important. In July, there was a 50% decrease in new listings (only 73 homes) compared to the previous month of June which saw 147 new listings. That lowering of new houses to hit the market certainly limits overall inventory.
July 2022 Maui Condo Sales by the Numbers
For July, the condo market leveled off significantly as total sales were down across the board (save for Ma’alaea). By the end of the month, inventory for Wailea condos reached 25 units, the highest amount in 14 months. These numbers are most easily explained by higher interest rates, of course. However, a deeper dive into the data offers some encouraging notes. Even with total sales slowing down, our resort areas of South (Kihei, Wailea, Makena) and West Maui (Lahaina, Ka’anapali, Honokawai, Kahana, Napili, Kapalua) have seen condo values appreciate much faster than the overall market. Ka’anapali and Kihei condos saw the largest increase in median sale price, rising 80% and 45% respectively compared to a year ago!
Report’s Key Takeaways
- Prices have stabilized after a historic run of rising valuations
- Inventory remains historically low, new development not making much impact
- Strong job market with lower unemployment rates across the board
- Resurgent visitor numbers with record spending
- Demand still high, multiple offers, all cash buyers, short time on market
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Anthony Sayles R(S)