2015 Year-End Analysis for Maui Real Estate
2016 has been off to a rocky start and I am not referring to the carb free, gluten free diet that ended at the first cupcake sighting or the gym membership that has gone un-used since January 1st. I am talking about a volatile stock market, dropping oil costs and a Canadian dollar that has dropped to its lowest level in 5 years. Is this the year to get off the stock market roller coaster and diversify to Maui real estate? The year-end statistics for Maui home, condo and land sales are in and they have a lot to tell us about how our market preformed in 2015 and the potential best opportunities Maui real estate in 2016.
Single Family Home Sales
A Pukalani home for sale we got under contract in a week and a half
The summary of sales across Maui showed improvement with the number of sales up 15%, median sales price up 2% and total dollar volume sold up 13% over 2014 stats. Buyers who wanted to get away from it all drove the 2015 home market. Properties in the Hana and Nahiku areas noticed some of the biggest gains with number of sales up 167% and 200% respectively. The median sales price in Hana was up 62% with total dollar volume sold up 461%. The Haiku market saw sizable gains in all areas with number of sales up 11%, median sales price up 8% and total dollar volume up 49%. After years of appreciation, the Sprecklesville/Paia/Kuau market leveled off in 2015 with 0% change in the number of sales, -30% median sales price and -53% in total dollar volume sold.
Fee Simple Condominium
Ho’olei villa sold by the Sayles Team for $3.3 million
The summery of sales across Maui showed little change in the sales performance from 2014-2015. The number of sales and median sales price were both down -1% and total dollar volume was up 1%. When considering fee simple condo sales, I typically only look to the South Maui and West Maui areas for trends because their data sets are large enough to represent a significant Buyer pool. Condos in the Lahaina area showed the most dramatic improvement with number of sales up 49%, median sales price up 5% and total dollar volume up 50%. The Wailea/Makena area showed an increase in number of sales up 21%, median sales price up 1% and total dollar volume up 30%. The Kihei condo market saw the number of sales up 7%, median sales price up 9% and total dollar volume up 7%.
Olinda property the team sold back in late 2014
Vacant land across Maui showed a decline in the number of sales of -7%, a drop in median sales price of -14% and an increase in total dollar volume of 14%. The Wailea/Makena submarket saw a huge surge in all categories due in part to 6 sales ranging from $7.8-$9.8 million dollars in the Maluaka community. The number of sales in that area was up 71%, median sales price was up 199% and total dollar volume was up 445%. The Haiku area on the North Shore showed an increase in the number of vacant land sales up 16% in total number of sales but lower median sales price down -17% and total dollar volume down -7%.
The real estate market on Maui in general has risen at a steady upward angle. Within that general trend some sub markets have taken a more dramatic, rocket like rise and others have been more like the lift to the bunny slope. For value conscious Buyers now might be the time to consider vacant land instead of an already built home. This is especially true for the North Shore markets like Haiku, Hana and Nahiku, which saw sizable gains in the single family values. In addition, condo values have remained relatively stable especially in the Kihei area. We are continuing to see an increase in inventory in some of the most popular vacation rental communities in the Kihei area as Canadian owners take advantage of the exchange rate and shed their second homes on Maui. Buyers for condos in Kihei have a wide selection of properties to pick from and can shop the best values.
Kamani at Kehalani new construction
Finally, there are several new communities that will be available for sale this year at price points that will appeal to a range of Buyers. One of my favorite clients told me recently, that “the best buy on Earth is Earth!” and I couldn’t agree more. Not only is it a tangible investment, but it’s also one you can greatly enjoy. After all, the memories you will make on Maui are priceless. Buyers who are considering financing, now is the time to make an appointment with a lender and get pre-qualified!
Every submarket has a cap of where values will stop gaining and adjust. If you are an owner of a single-family home in the North Shore area, now might be a good time to consider putting your property up for sale. Haiku appears to be on a similar path Sprecklesville/Paia/ Kuaua was on last year. If you are an owner of a piece of vacant land, now could be a good time to sharpen your pencil and see if building is the right move for you. Land values tend to be some of the last to rise when markets are in recovery. If you aren’t able to build, you might want to hold off on selling until the vacant land market catches up with the rest of Maui real estate.
No matter how thorough the analysis, there is no one size fits all approach to addressing all Buyer and Seller options. Let’s work together to make a strategy that best fits your unique real estate goals.
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Please interview me to be your trusted Maui Real Estate and Lifestyle Advisor. I was born and raised on the island, and spend a considerable amount of time to inform my clients about the best deals currently on the market. Please do not hesitate to call me for your Maui real estate needs. I am more than happy to assist you in your home search.